Christianity in China has stopped growing since 2010, according to an academic paper.
"In 19 nationally representative surveys conducted since the early 2000s, the authors find no clear evidence that Christianity continues to grow as a share of China's population," said an academic paper titled "The Growth of Christianity in China May Have Come to an End."
Co-authored by Conrad Hackett, associate director of research and a senior demographer at the Pew Research Center, and Yunping Tong, a research associate at the Pew Research Center specializing in international religious demography, the article is an expanded version of an earlier report "Measuring Religion in China" published by Pew Research Center on August 30, 2023, which concludes that there is no evidence that Christianity in China is growing after 2010.
Released in Sage Journal on January 10, the paper concludes that there is no evidence for the growth of Christianity in China as the Christian percentage hovers around two percent in recent years and there seems to be more senior Christians than young believers, based on two decades of survey data.
The data comes from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS; 2006–2021), the China Family Panel Studies (2012–2018), the China Labor-Force Dynamics Survey (CLDS; 2012–2014), the World Values Survey (WVS; 2001–2018), and the 2007 Spiritual Life Study of Chinese Residents (SLSCR).
Despite their limitations and the complexity of the church in China, the authors contend that "surveys provide crucial information about the recent trajectory of China's Christian population."
Controversies have been aroused among Chinese Christians ever since. A pastor from Shandong Province agrees that the total Christian population in China is declining, while another pastor from northeastern China opposes that as new converts come to his church each year.
China Christian Daily interviewed five experts and scholars from China and the U.S. to share their perspectives on this paper:
Liu Ping, Professor of Religious Studies at Fudan University
I neither oppose nor support this view that "the growth of Christianity in China may have come to an end," as any conclusions drawn from sampling surveys are unreliable given China's current ideological landscape, the broad distribution of religions, and the limitations of social surveys. The value of such a survey lies in being "for reference only," with their limitation being the sampling methodology. In fact, no one, including the Chinese government, knows the exact number of China's Christians.
Since the beginning of the 21st century, China's Christian population has shifted from growth to decline. This conclusion is based on the trend observed over the first quarter of the century, with 2012 serving as a dividing point: the first 12 years saw rapid growth, while the following 12 years experienced a significant decline. The reasons for this shift include the transition from a high-speed to a low-speed economy, the outbreak of the pandemic, large-scale economic downturns, population decline, strict AI-driven surveillance down to the individual level, and the emigration of middle-class and wealthy Christians overseas. All these factors have contributed to the accelerated decrease in the Christian population.
The future trajectory of Chinese Christianity in the coming decades will result in a decreasing population and an improving quality under ever-increasing outward pressure. Apart from the ideology, the influence of artificial intelligence (AI) is even greater. Christianity in China needs to and must "upgrade" itself. In other words, a reformation in the AI era is inevitable. If the current model and approach continue, Chinese Christianity will inevitably shrink into a marginalized faith community, becoming irrelevant to society as a whole.
Zhang Zhipeng, Professor of Economics of Religion in Nanjing
Even if the survey data on which this article is based is reliable, it does not necessarily lead to a definitive conclusion that can be presented with a striking headline. The real question worth deep reflection is: What are the key factors determining the number of Christians in China? Is rapid economic growth more conducive to the development of Christianity, or is it easier to attract believers during economic downturns? Only by understanding these key factors can we assess the trends in the number of Chinese Christians over the past decade and into the future.
Research in the sociology of religion indicates that the demand for religion or faith is universal and stable. While thousands of factors influence a person's conversion to a religion, the core factor remains a comparison of benefits and costs. In economic terms, people make choices when the marginal benefit equals the marginal cost. When the benefits of adhering to a religion remain stable, the decision depends on changes in cost. If the cost decreases, the number of believers will increase; if the cost rises, the number of believers will decline.
There is no doubt that before the end of the Cultural Revolution, the cost of practicing religion was extremely high. This led to a rapid and significant decline in the number of religious followers, including Christians. After 1978, the relaxation of economic and social controls indirectly lowered the cost of religious belief, leading to a steady and rapid growth in the number of adherents across various religions until around 2012. Some researchers mistakenly attributed this religious revival to economic growth. However, in the years that followed, the cost borne by religious believers in China has continued to rise. It is clearly seen from the data in WVS and CGSS that the year 2012 or 2013 marked a turning point in the proportion of Christians in China. In this sense, the survey data aligns with the actual trend.
Considering the complexity of religion and faith among Chinese people, I conducted surveys in 2018 and 2021 using the "snowball sampling" method within my WeChat network. Approximately eight percent of 1,653 respondents identified themselves as Christians in 2018 and the same proportion held in 2021—higher than the national survey estimate of around 2% of Chinese adults identifying as Christians. Among the atheists, who accounted for more than 20% in both surveys, young students were the vast majority, and this proportion continued to decline with age; meanwhile, the percentage of those who chose a clear religious belief increased as they grew older. This dynamic change in the number of believers is easily influenced by relevant laws and policies. For this reason, I believe the actual number of Christians in China is often underestimated in surveys.
I believe a more accurate way to express the shift in China's Christian population since the 21st century is that due to the increasing cost of faith, the number of Christians with a clear religious identity, after a period of rapid growth, has begun to plateau. However, the spread of Christian awareness and practices has not ceased, laying the foundation for future growth in Christian identification. It should be noted that the religious "market" in China in the future will not be dominated by a single religion, but rather will feature the coexistence of multiple religions or beliefs. As for which religion or belief will have a higher proportion, it will depend on which one can gain the recognition of young people.
Chris Wang, Church Pastor in China
I think the paper is generally reliable. However, China's Christian population has been increasing since the 21st century, and the rate of growth has slowed. Intergenerational succession and evangelistic efforts have contributed to this increase. Overall, the situation was conducive and friendly to the spread and growth of Christianity during the first decade or more.
In my opinion, those surveys present an overestimate of the actual Christian population in China, as they tend to involve double or even multiple counting, overreporting, and exaggeration. The paper acknowledges the limitation of these surveys, as Christian statistics in China are difficult to obtain or unreliable, but I believe the paper offers a reasonable analysis with sound judgment. While this kind of paper may seem to throw cold water or raise a warning, I do hold that the church in China should listen to something true. Having been previously instilled with a magic potion, the church in China took for granted that it was continuously expanding. However, in reality, it has experienced stagnation, backwardness, and even decline. The church should embrace reality, abandon fantasies, and confront the situation as soon as possible.
Please avoid using the word "development" when discussing the trends of Christianity in China. Given the current situation and the history of the country, along with trends observed in other countries and regions such as Russia, Japan, and Taiwan, I am pessimistic about the prospects for growth. An increase seems unlikely, and deterioration is possible.
As Christians, we still need to believe in the supreme, wonderful, loving, and just God who understands the hearts of humans and controls history. Everything is in His hands. What we should do is look up to Him, do our best, and entrust the future into His care.
Gina A. Zurlo, Ph.D., Visiting Lecturer on World Christianity at Harvard Divinity School
Survey research in China is very hard and rather confusing. This report makes a valuable contribution to our understanding of religion in China by synthesizing existing studies into a single narrative that highlights the religious complexities of this country. Three major strengths are laid out right at the beginning of the report: "Highlighting the shortcomings of available data"; addressing the "awkward fit of categories used in other parts of the world"; and an emphasis on "the impact of culture and politics on religious activity in China" (page 4). Recognizing the linguistic, political, and conceptual challenges of studying religion in China is by far this report's major strength, as is the attention paid to language and translation. I appreciate how the report consistently defines terms in both Chinese and English to help orient the reader as to how questions have been asked across surveys.
(The table on page 60, Chapter 4) very clearly shows that the way you ask the question has an impact on the results. While a range of 3% to 7% might not seem that large, remember that China has 1.4 billion people. Even a one percentage point change in any of these questions results in a huge number of people and has a significant impact on all of World Christianity, beyond China. In fact, my analysis has shown that if Christianity is to remain the world's largest religion in the future, it will be because of conversions in China and India, two of the most difficult places to study, and two places with very complicated cultural, historical, and political relationships to Christianity.
It's somewhat odd that the report makes no mention of estimates from the World Christian Database, which is the longest-running effort to count Christians in China, tracking religious and non-religious trends since 1965, with estimates back to 1900. Our figure is mentioned (100 million; 7%), but it is miscredited to Daryl Ireland at Boston University, who is citing our data in that linked article. The report gives some information on registered vs. unregistered churches in China, but I think the emphasis on survey measures alone gives a misleading picture of the situation on the ground.
A big discrepancy between our estimates for the size of the Christian population in China has to do with source material. Pew has done a good job describing the political situation in China and how it impacts religious research. They've also done a great service by assembling all the available surveys and providing a helpful meta-analysis of their findings. However, the World Christian Database does not rely solely on government censuses and surveys to estimate the size of religious populations worldwide. We also gather data directly from religious communities themselves, especially Christian leaders, networks, and denominations. This is particularly important for a place like China, where everyone knows the government reporting is biased and it's extremely difficult to do survey research. We simply differ on what makes "good data," especially for difficult countries. Our estimates for China and Pew's estimates for China are just that – estimates.
The answer is based on the "Comments on the Pew Research Center's Report, 'Measuring Religion in China'" given at the annual meeting of the Society for the Scientific Study of Religion + Religious Research Association, Salt Lake City, Utah, on October 20-22, 2023 as a response to the Pew Research Center's report released on August 30, 2023.
Joann Pittman, Vice President of Partnership and China Engagement at ChinaSource
In my opinion, we do not know how many Christians there are in China, and we cannot know, for many of the reasons stated in recent surveys and reports. Government statistics are unreliable because they only count registered church members. The political environment makes public surveys difficult, if not impossible. Therefore, any numbers published are only estimates.
All that we have are what I call "preferred estimates," which range from 36 million to 120 million (the highest estimate that I've heard). When speaking with those who are knowledgeable about the church situation in China, responses vary between these two numbers. Some estimate 50 million, while others suggest 90 or 100 million. Some prefer one estimate while others prefer a different one. Each has their own reasoning for their preferred estimate, but ultimately, it remains an estimate. When people ask me (which they often do), I reply, "somewhere between 50 and 100 million." I would never presume that either the lowest or the highest estimate is the correct one.
Has church growth slowed in China? Again, in the absence of hard and reliable data, we are left only with anecdotes. I've heard anecdotal evidence suggesting it has. But there is possibly contrary anecdotal evidence that I have not heard. There is no real way to know.
The numbers and trends may be debatable (and unknowable), but what is not debatable is God's faithfulness to His people in China, no matter how many there are.
