"In 19 nationally representative surveys conducted since the early 2000s, the authors find no clear evidence that Christianity continues to grow as a share of China's population," claimed an academic paper titled "The Growth of Christianity in China May Have Come to an End" published in Sage Journal on January 10.
Co-authored by Conrad Hackett, associate director of research and a senior demographer at the Pew Research Center, and Yunping Tong, a research associate at the Pew Research Center specializing in international religious demography, the article is an expanded version of an earlier report "Measuring Religion in China" published by Pew Research Center on August 30, 2023, which concludes that there is no evidence that Christianity in China is growing after 2010.
In addition to the Pew research, other organizations and individuals share similar perspectives.
So, what is the current state of Christianity in China? Has its growth truly come to an end? And how do local Chinese pastors view the findings of the Pew study?
In the first quarter of this year, the Christian Times, an online Chinese Christian newspaper, gathered insights from 12 pastors of house churches in China. The research was conducted primarily through in-person interviews, supplemented by online visits.
Regarding geographic distribution, these pastors are located across eight provincial-level regions in mainland China, covering East China, North China, Northwest, Southeast, Central-South, and Northeast regions. In terms of age range, the 12 pastors span four generations, from those born in the 1960s to the 1990s. Their names are not disclosed due to safety considerations.
First, regarding their attitudes toward the Pew survey report—four pastors openly opposed its conclusions, using words such as "doubtful," "the data might be fake," and "nonsense." Five pastors refrained from commenting, stating they were "not in a position to speak" or simply saying "no comment." Three pastors remained indifferent to the findings of the Pew survey.
In terms of their outlook on the trend of Christian population growth in China—seven pastors did not express a clear stance, using phrases such as "shouldn't be pessimistic," "a temporary bottleneck," and "hasn't decreased." Four pastors believed the number of Christians in China is still growing, describing it as "continuing to grow," "slow growth," or "in development." Only one pastor believed that the Christian population in China is slowly declining.
Decline in the Number of Christians in China
This pastor believes that China is a vast country, where churches face complex and varied circumstances—each congregation may experience unique challenges. But overall, his sense is that the number of Christians in China is probably slowly declining. One reason is that in recent years, churches have not been as active in evangelism as they used to be. Fewer young people are coming to faith, and in recent years—especially during the pandemic—many older Christians have passed away.
Born in the 1960s, this pastor has been a believer and minister for several decades. He remarked, "The difference between past periods of church revival and the present is truly significant. In the 1980s and 1990s, during the revival era, it was common in many rural areas for dozens of people in a single village to hear the gospel and become Christians. Such scenes were widespread back then and considered normal. However, similar occurrences have largely disappeared today—both in cities and rural areas."
Meanwhile, this pastor highlighted the complexity of the church landscape in China,"Not all churches across the country are in decline. For example, I know of a few churches in certain cities that are still growing—and growing quite rapidly. However, these churches primarily focus on ministry among young people, with congregations largely composed of individuals under 35. In that sense, they do not fully represent the broader picture."
In his view, while some churches continue to grow and develop, they remain the exception rather than the norm. Looking at the overall state of the Chinese church, he believes the total number of Christians may have already begun to decline.
The Number of Christians in China Is Still Growing
A female pastor from Northeast China, born in the 1960s, firmly rejected the conclusions of the Pew study. She stated, "Our church has been actively evangelizing, and every year, new people are baptized." While some of those baptized later leave the church for various reasons, she does not see this as a major issue. In her view, what matters most is that the soul is saved—wherever they go, they can continue to know God.
A pastor from East China offered a more in-depth perspective. He believes that the number of Christians in China is slowly increasing, even if the growth is not immediately visible. He compared the current situation to the Cultural Revolution, when it seemed there were very few believers. Yet after the era ended, the Christian population quickly surged. Today, he observes a rising group of people in their 30s becoming active in local churches, and seminary training programs continue to enroll students. He sees this as God preparing a new generation of leaders. Though many of these young Christians may not have a high level of education, he believes that can be addressed over time. In his view, the Chinese church is currently experiencing gradual growth, and the priority should be equipping leaders—especially those with a broad vision, international perspective, and strategic thinking.
Pastor Wang, a long-time minister from East China, shares a similar perspective. Based on his extensive observations across different regions, he believes that Christianity in China is still expanding overall. He explained, "The older generation of believers continues to hold on to their faith. Although the growth rate may be slow, the total number is still rising. In some places I've observed, the number of Christians has remained steady. While in others, it has gradually increased. Of course, many elderly believers have passed away—but new people are also joining the church. These new believers aren't necessarily young; some are middle-aged or even elderly, but they are still becoming part of the church community."
However, Pastor Wang pointed out that aging has become a serious issue in Chinese churches. "Actually, it's not just the Chinese church—churches in the U.K., U.S., and South Korea have all gone through similar stages. This is part of historical and generational trends. Different countries face the same challenges, and no single person can reverse these patterns. Right now, I see aging as the most pressing issue in the Chinese church."
In one of the churches Pastor Wang visited, ten years have passed, yet the congregation remains largely the same group of people. "This is something that both excites me and saddens me," he said.
Pastor Wang believes that once church aging reaches a certain threshold, the total number of Christians will begin to decline—and then sharply decrease. He sees this as an important lesson. Once this lesson is fully experienced, it will serve as a wake-up call for those who come after. At present, no matter how much people speak out or call for change, the impact remains limited. However, history will deliver a hard lesson, and the next generation will learn from it.
In Pastor Wang's view, this era is undeniably difficult—one in which young people, middle-aged adults, and even pastors and ministers are facing severe challenges brought by the times. Yet at the same time, it is also an era full of hope. His years of ministry experience have shown him that every generation initially appears bleak. Those born in the 1970s didn't think much of the '80s generation, the '80s were not optimistic about the '90s, and the '90s didn't think highly of the 2000s. Many people tend to believe that each generation is worse than the last, however, in reality, every generation grows. Back then, the '90s generation was the one we had the least hope for, he said. But today, many faithful Christians and even church leaders come from that generation.
No Clear Position on the Change in the Number of Christians in China
It is important to clarify that when we say, "seven pastors did not express a clear stance on the change in the number of Christians in China," it does not mean they lacked an opinion altogether. Rather, they simply did not explicitly align with any conclusion.
For example, Pastor Wang, from North China, believes that from the perspective of natural growth, there is no reason for pessimism. He shared a true story: A missionary who traveled to Japan spent decades trying to plant a church but struggled to reach anyone. Over time, discouragement set in. After 40 years, he still had not led a single Japanese person to Christ—but because he had many descendants, the church eventually became full. The missionary reflected, "I didn't bring a single local Japanese to faith, but I came here alone, and now my entire family—dozens of us—are all Christians."
In Pastor Wang's view, similar stories are not uncommon in the Christian community, reinforcing his belief that there is no need for pessimism. He argues that once a person is truly saved, the likelihood of them abandoning their faith is very low—aside from death.
Some claim that the number of Christians in China is decreasing, citing the passing of many elderly believers from previous decades. While this may be true, Pastor Wang counters that their descendants—though they may work in factories or other industries and rarely attend churches—still come from families with a legacy of faith. From a broader perspective, while some churches have indeed declined and many believers, including pastors, have left, he emphasizes that even outside the church, they remain God's servants. Leaving a church does not mean leaving the Lord—they continue to bear witness to Christ across China.
Therefore, he affirms his conviction that God reigns over the kingdoms of men and that Christ is the head of God's Kingdom. He believes that God will surely lead His weak children in battle against the powers of Satan and darkness, transforming them—though weak—into soldiers of the Lord. Just like the Israelites during the Exodus: though they were a group of slaves, God called them "the army of the Lord" and trained them through forty years in the wilderness to become His warriors.
Pastor Elisha, who also serves in North China, expressed skepticism toward the conclusions of the Pew report. He highlighted another key factor affecting the current number of Christians in China: believers who came to faith in the 1970s and '80s generally had lower levels of education. That made it easier for them to accept Christianity—but also easier to abandon it. In contrast, today's believers tend to be more highly educated; many could even be considered intellectuals. One defining trait of intellectuals, he explained, is that once they embrace faith, their belief is difficult to shake. Moreover, their influence on family and society tends to be greater. Because of this, he views the current bottleneck as only temporary.
A brief comment from a pastor in the Northwest region reflects the attitude of many pastors. He simply stated that he had no opinion on the matter, as he is not currently reflecting on such issues. In his view, this topic is not particularly important, as his attention is focused on other priorities.
A pastor from the South Central region shared that ten years ago, the average number of baptisms per year in his area was nearly ten times what it is now. In recent years, the annual number of baptisms has been around 300, whereas a decade ago, it was counted in the thousands—almost ten times higher than today.
Pastor Wang, from East China, indicated he doesn't feel qualified to comment on the overall change in the number of Christians in China, as he hasn't conducted any research on the matter. However, he does have some reflections: "If one day the environment changes—if God opens a door for China—are we really ready for that change? Will we truly be able to grow under such new conditions? Not necessarily."
He explained this by highlighting a consistent truth found throughout two thousand years of Christian history: suffering and persecution lead to growth and development." If the number of Christians in China is declining now, what is the reason? In my view, it's because we've become too comfortable, too indulgent, too free—and that's why we're in decline. Even if God brings revival again, if our foundation is not solid, we still won't be able to stand firm."
Pastor Li, from North China, shared a similar perspective."Looking at my own church, the number of people is increasing. But I don't place much value on numerical growth. What I care most about is whether people's lives are truly being transformed. In fact, blind growth may not be a good thing. Sometimes, we act like we're running a pyramid scheme—frantically trying to bring people in. But even if we get them into the church, they might end up feeling miserable."
He continued,"Of course, speaking strictly in terms of attendance, our church is growing. But I know this growth isn't from 'newcomers'—it's because some Christians were hurt in their former churches and came over here instead. So, can that kind of growth really be called growth?"
Summary and Outlook
Based on interviews with 12 Chinese pastors, we can summarize and project the following key findings:
- The conclusion drawn by the Pew Research Center—that "the growth of Christianity in China may have ended"—lacks sufficient evidence and shows low consistency with on-the-ground observations.
- While the number of Christians in China can serve as an important indicator of Christianity's development, it should not—and cannot—be regarded as the decisive factor.
- Based on responses from several Chinese pastors, we propose a revised perspective: Christianity in China is entering—or has already entered—a phase of "latent development."
We should pay greater attention to the quiet transformation in the development model of the Chinese church—shifting from a past emphasis on rapid and simplistic numerical growth to a future-oriented pursuit of quality development. In recent years, many churches have recognized this shift and have taken action, such as focusing on discipleship training, building healthy churches, and promoting missional church models.
Supplementary Note
It is important to acknowledge that, due to time constraints and various other limitations, the Christian Times was only able to interview 12 church pastors. Given the vast scale of the Chinese church, this sample size is too small to be fully representative.
Regarding regional distribution, none of the pastors interviewed were from Southwest China. Additionally, considering church activity levels, pastors from the Southeast and South Central regions were slightly underrepresented.
Furthermore, the content of this survey was relatively basic and limited in scope. To enhance future research, it would be beneficial to expand the range of questions. Due to insufficient planning, this small-scale survey lacked uniformity, and future studies could incorporate more structured, closed-ended questions to improve consistency.
Finally, the sample size of 12 pastors is noticeably small. As a result, some important factors affecting changes in the number of Christians in China—such as economic and cultural influences—were not mentioned by any of the respondents. This underscores the need for a larger and more representative sample in future studies.
- Translated by J.C.
