Compared to the robust growth period from 1979 to 2009, Christianity in China over the past decade has apparently entered a stagnation or bottleneck phase since 2010.
According to a December 2023 issue by Pew, the renowned Christian research institution, after experiencing rapid growth in the 1980s and 1990s, the number of Chinese Christians has suspectedly stopped growing in the past decade. The report estimates the proportion of Chinese Christians in recent years, indicating that the proportion was around 2% between 2010 and 2018. Due to the pandemic, the survey coverage in 2021 was reduced compared to previous years, and the proportion was estimated to be 1%.
While this survey has sparked diverse opinions, many grassroots pastors and church workers have indeed felt the fatigue and difficulties in the growth and development of the Chinese church over the past decade.
Has Christianity in China truly entered stagnation? Does Chinese Christianity still possess latent vitality that could potentially seize new opportunities and experience a new revival in the future?
Retracing the rough outline of Protestantism in China over the past 200 years
To envision the future, it is necessary to retrace history.
Since the arrival of Robert Morrison in China in 1807, Protestantism in China has undergone significant changes over the past 200 years, often resembling a roller coaster ride, constantly experiencing momentous changes brought by the times.
This is vastly different from Western churches during the same period, primarily due to the vastly different historical and social backgrounds faced by Western churches and Chinese churches over the past 200 years, leading to differences in key themes between the two.
Since gradually entering the modern era in the 16th century, the situation in the post-Christendom and post-denominational eras has already stabilized in the West. The greatest contradiction between modernity and antiquity in the Christian realm is the conflict between classical doctrines and the changing times, centered on the debate between fundamentalists and liberals, as well as the tension between Christianity and secularization.
Since China passively entered the modern era in the mid-19th century, the core of the debate between modernity and antiquity over the past 200 years has been how to break through various negative burdens while retaining cultural identity, transforming from an ancient civilization into a modern society. This primary contradiction has also led China to experience countless twists and turns in modern times. To describe it concisely and vividly, it is similar to the "Historical Three Gorges View" proposed by the renowned historian Te-Kong Tong, who argues that Chinese history must inevitably undergo a long transition period between the transformation of two social forms.
Therefore, Chinese society has undergone many dramatic changes and throes brought by the times in the past 200 years, and Protestantism, which took root in China during the same period, has also experienced several significant transformations due to internal and external turmoil and contradictions.
Looking back at history, the period from 1807 to 1900 was the early establishment of churches, characterized by conflicts between missionaries and local co-workers. The historical context revolved around the establishment of indigenous Chinese churches. From 1900 to the 1950s, despite the vast distance, the local churches in China also experienced the conflict between liberalism and fundamentalism brought by Western churches, leading to two different theological positions and church lineages in China. From 1950 to 1979, the church underwent a whole period of persecution, with many ordinary unnamed Christians disseminating the faith.
The period from 1979 to 2009 can be characterized as a "vigorous growth period," experiencing the revival and rise of rural and urban churches and the resulting attempt to make house churches public starting in 2008.
Significant growth periods and the reasons behind Chinese Christianity since 1979
The "vigorous growth" of Chinese Christianity can be clearly and quickly seen from the changes in officially announced figures:
In 1949, there were 700,000 Christians in China, accounting for 0.17% of the total population (based on a total population of 400 million).
In 1982, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China issued Document No. 19, titled "Basic Views and Policies on Religious Issues in China’s Socialist Period," stating that there were approximately 3 million Christians and 3 million Catholics.
"The Freedom of Religious Belief in China," released by the State Council Information Office in 1997, indicated that there were 10 million Christians in China, accounting for approximately 0.83% of the total population (based on a total population of 1.2 billion).
According to the introductions of Christianity on the official website of the central government in 2005, "the number of Christians in China reached 16 million, with over 50,000 churches and activity sites, nearly 3,000 pastors, 15,000 clergy members, and nearly 110,000 volunteers." In 2005, China’s total population was 1.307 billion, and the proportion of Christians accounted for approximately 1.2% of the total population.
In 2010, the Institute of World Religions of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released a national survey report on Christianity, estimating that approximately 1.8% of China’s population, or about 230.5 million people, are Christians.
From 700,000 to 230.5 million, the growth factor is approximately 33, while the growth factor of China’s population during the same period, from 400 million to approximately 1.33 billion, is approximately 3.3. The former is 10 times that of the latter. There are various opinions on the number of Chinese Christians. If compared with data from some other international institutions, the growth rate is even more significant.
Why did the number of Chinese Christians experience such vigorous growth during these 30 years? Different research institutions have analyzed this from different perspectives. Among them, a representative domestic analysis of the rapid development of Christianity after the Reform and Opening-up is the "Report on Chinese Religious Survey (2015)" published by Renmin University of China, stating: "Among the five major religions, Christianity is the one that best adapts to the contemporary Chinese social environment, which may be the fundamental reason for its significant development in the past 30 years."
During these 30 years, it is clear that the church’s growth experienced or seized several significant revival periods, which can also be said to be the result of the church meeting the needs of the times:
1979-1990—The era of gatherings: growth for rural churches
Meeting the demand for gatherings was sufficient. Growth could be achieved wherever there were gatherings. This historical background was a result of the immense demand for religious belief after religious needs were extremely suppressed during the decades of persecution from 1950 to 1979.
1990 to 2009 —The era of venue availability: establishment of urban churches
During this time, the demand for gatherings was no longer high, but rather the need for venues soared. Churches that could provide stable meeting venues saw growth, leading to the emergence of numerous new urban churches.
An analysis of the current needs of Chinese churches through changes since 2010
From 1979 to 2009, Chinese Christianity experienced rapid growth and accumulation, with a tenfold increase in both the number of believers and churches. However, after 2010, it has been difficult to observe a vibrant growth trend based solely on the external numbers of believers and churches.
According to Pew in August and December 2023, Christianity flourished in China after the economic reforms and opening up to the world in the 1980s. However, recent survey reports on religious affiliation do not provide much evidence of continued growth after 2010.
Despite this, since 2010, while not experiencing widespread growth as before, some churches have still grasped the needs and opportunities of the times to experience growth. These churches capitalized on two periods of dividends:
2010-2019—The era of basic pastoral care dividends
Churches that met the demand for basic pastoral care, such as providing daily pastoral care, discipleship training, or small group activities, experienced growth. This was a time when believers no longer lacked meeting venues but instead sought inner growth and learned how to live out their faith in all aspects of life.
2019-2023—The era of online gathering dividends
The pandemic-driven surge in demand for online gatherings saw growth for churches that could fulfill believers’ needs for gatherings and pastoral care online. This was a time when physical gatherings became difficult due to the COVID-19 pandemic and other reasons.
More than a decade has passed since the period of vibrant growth. However, the growth of some churches during 2010-2024 demonstrates that even after the peak growth period, churches can still achieve growth by sensitively responding to the needs of the times.
We can still find clues from the numerical comparison. According to the 2018 White Paper "China’s Policies and Practices on Safeguarding Freedom of Religious Belief," there are over 38 million Christian believers and approximately 57,000 religious clergymen. Based on these figures, one grassroots religious cleric is responsible for the pastoral care of about 667 believers. If we use the official data from 2014, which estimates the number of Christian believers in China between 23 million and 40 million, accounting for 1.7% to 2.9% of the total population. Calculating with 40 million Christians and 60,000 grassroots pastors yields similar results, where each pastor is tasked with shepherding approximately 667 believers. Even if the data is halved due to various reasons, a grassroots pastor still has to shoulder the pastoral care of at least 400-500 people. This scale of 400-500 members is considered a medium-sized church in Western Christianity. In other words, on average, a pastor needs to provide pastoral care and meet the service demands of no less than a medium-sized church.
It can be seen that from 1979 to 2009, the Chinese church experienced a period of robust growth, resulting in a large number of new-generation Christians (the term "new generation" refers to those who grew up in Christian families). This also fostered significant pastoral care needs among these believers. In contrast, the proportion of pastors is relatively low, and the Chinese church has undergone various epochal changes, leading to limited spiritual inheritance and accumulation. Therefore, satisfying this demand poses a significant challenge.
The current state of Chinese Christianity resembles a vast but shallow beach. Jesus once compared building a house on rock versus sand to illustrate the differences in outcomes brought by the strength of foundations: "Therefore everyone who hears these words of mine and puts them into practice is like a wise man who built his house on the rock. The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house, yet it did not fall because it had its foundation on the rock. But everyone who hears these words of mine and does not put them into practice is like a foolish man who built his house on sand. The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house, and it fell with a great crash." (Mathew 7: 24-27)
Although it seems that Chinese Christianity has passed its peak growth period, it still faces immense demands in terms of both depth and breadth:
Depth issues: The re-pastoral care needs of tens of millions of Christians, accounting for at least 2% of China’s population accumulated from 1979 to 2009, include demands for their spiritual growth, the inheritance of faith in their families and the next generation, as well as their needs in the workplace and daily life.
Breadth issues: Being in an environment where 98% of the population is non-Christian means that the breadth of outreach is still very low. Increasing the outreach by even 1 percentage point represents a significant number. In a society where Christian culture is on the margins, extending outreach requires extensive cultivation, which is now different from the era of the 1970s and 1990s. It cannot rely solely on spreading the gospel through word of mouth to attract people. It requires deeper cultivation and pastoral care, thus implying greater pastoral care needs.
It can be seen that the current needs of the Chinese church are different from those during the previous periods of gathering and venue dividends. The greatest need now is for intensive or refined pastoral care.
Where is the future potential and dividend period for the Chinese churches?
An increasing number of churches have realized this need. Therefore, many related pastoral care courses, resources, and system reconstructions have emerged in the past decade, such as discipleship training, small-group pastoral care, and family courses. These are attempts to provide more refined pastoral care based on the needs of different groups, all representing intensive pastoral care.
A pastor in East China said that his investigation found that churches that implemented discipleship training and small-group pastoral care had experienced growth in the past decade. He believes that this trend will continue for at least 5-10 years.
A pastor in South China talked about his pastoral philosophy: pastoral ministry is about fostering families. The essence of fostering a church is to care for the families, and the core of the church is the families.
A pastor in North China observed that pastoral care for families was becoming increasingly important, representing a new trend.
The consensus among pastors in various regions is that churches today cannot over-prioritize growth in size and quantity as they did in the past, but instead need to focus more on quality and internal development.
Not long ago, I learned from a sister who has served in churches across different denominations and theological backgrounds, "Now is the era where wherever there is pastoral care, there are groups of believers." This statement aptly captures the core needs of believers today, who desire more refined and in-depth pastoral care. Those who strive to fulfill these needs will experience growth.
The primary responses to this current demand include:
Providing systematic pastoral care for the entire congregation;
Tailoring refined pastoral care based on specific groups (e.g., singles, families, professionals);
Assisting in the faith inheritance of the next generation;
Training and developing young pastoral staff;
Meeting the demand for social services.
The demand for social services is showing an increasing trend, including the urgency of mental health issues, the growing elderly population, and the need for cultural activities. "Social services are like a deep-water pier for the church," said a Christian engaged in social charity. He has observed that the contemporary social environment has undergone significant changes, making it more difficult to bring people to churches than before. Therefore, the key to a paradigm shift is for the church to go out into the community.
It is evident that churches need to identify and capitalize on the dividend period of meeting the needs of the times or the hearts of people to bring about a new round of growth. The most critical need at present is the demand for in-depth pastoral care and social services.
Stagnation or reorganization?
Rather than saying that the Chinese church has entered a stagnation or bottleneck period since 2010, I tend to believe it has entered a period of reorganization. However, many within the church are still unaware of this, so many will continue to rely on past growth models or make only passive adjustments to address issues like slow growth or others. A clearer understanding of the current stage and historical tasks can help us find and explore coping strategies more effectively.
From 1979 to 2009, the Chinese church experienced robust growth under God’s grace. After 2010, many shortcomings of the Chinese church became apparent, including in pastoral care, theological education, evangelism, integration into society, and social services. Now is a good time for reorganization.
Elijah, a prophet highly favored by God, displayed great miracles by praying for drought and rain, confronting 450 false prophets, and greatly manifesting God’s glory on Mount Carmel. He even brought fire and water down from heaven to accomplish awe-inspiring works. However, after all this, he was persecuted by Queen Jezebel and fled to the wilderness, losing hope and even seeking death under a broom tree. Facing Elijah sleeping under the broom tree, God’s angel prepared a jar of water and cakes made of roasted grain for him. After waking him up, Elijah ate and drank, saying, "Get up and eat, for the journey is too much for you." (1 Kings 19:7) Later, after re-experiencing God, he was given a new mission.
This is analogous to the current situation of the Chinese church. From 1979 to 2009, it experienced a remarkable growth miracle that attracted worldwide attention. Now is our time for reorganization, "for the journey is too much."
At present, the Chinese churches need to undergo reorganization in many aspects, including pastoral care, theological education, evangelism, and integration into modern society. We believe that God’s grace and protection are present in the current Chinese church, and we hope that after this period, the church will, like Elijah, re-experience God and respond to His new mission.
- Translated by Charlie Li
